Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.017868 0.020241 0.022814 0.025814 0.029217 0.032957 0.037383
2025-07-27 0.014394 0.017716 0.021630 0.026588 0.032707 0.040021 0.049443
2025-08-03 0.012083 0.015739 0.020299 0.026412 0.034408 0.044533 0.058365
2025-08-10 0.010520 0.014352 0.019358 0.026390 0.036036 0.048843 0.067206
2025-08-17 0.009173 0.013025 0.018261 0.025918 0.036864 0.052006 0.074649
2025-08-24 0.008341 0.012275 0.017818 0.026222 0.038691 0.056591 0.084391
2025-08-31 0.007516 0.011427 0.017119 0.026037 0.039726 0.060050 0.092726
2025-09-07 0.007023 0.011005 0.016980 0.026634 0.041925 0.065356 0.104268
2025-09-14 0.006255 0.010079 0.015978 0.025782 0.041771 0.066994 0.110155
2025-09-21 0.005708 0.009442 0.015357 0.025454 0.042381 0.069831 0.118156
2025-09-28 0.005139 0.008714 0.014518 0.024679 0.042162 0.071260 0.123880
2025-10-05 0.004961 0.008617 0.014699 0.025613 0.044873 0.077756 0.138807
2025-10-12 0.004729 0.008414 0.014693 0.026244 0.047153 0.083773 0.153580
2025-10-19 0.004539 0.008268 0.014774 0.027034 0.049786 0.090643 0.170565
2025-10-26 0.004217 0.007855 0.014345 0.026854 0.050625 0.094330 0.181949
2025-11-02 0.003950 0.007517 0.014019 0.026832 0.051739 0.098594 0.194786
2025-11-09 0.003647 0.007084 0.013480 0.026352 0.051926 0.101102 0.204387
2025-11-16 0.003473 0.006882 0.013357 0.026661 0.053669 0.106737 0.220731
2025-11-23 0.003253 0.006573 0.013001 0.026474 0.054394 0.110409 0.233363
2025-11-30 0.003141 0.006469 0.013038 0.027080 0.056782 0.117612 0.254035
2025-12-07 0.002881 0.006040 0.012388 0.026214 0.056024 0.118267 0.260704
2025-12-14 0.002697 0.005754 0.012009 0.025881 0.056361 0.121229 0.272660
2025-12-21 0.002484 0.005391 0.011440 0.025092 0.055641 0.121861 0.279442